Future Work

Globalization, fueled by technology is creating  a more borderless workforce and economy across borders.

This is good news and and bad news. BusinessWeek had some interesting statistics on the topic.

On the positive side, employers are hiring workers with higher and higher levels of education, and jobs are demanding ever more sophistication. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 34% of adult workers in the U.S. now have a bachelor's degree or better, up from 29% 10 years ago. What's more, the modern workplace no longer resembles the factory assembly line but rather the design studio, where the core values are collaboration and innovation, not mindless repetition. Talented people are still in high demand, and there's no evidence yet that work has become less interesting because of outsourcing. "On balance, I don't think that jobs are being fragmented," says Paul Osterman, a labor economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Fully 60% of respondents to a BusinessWeek poll expect working conditions for the average person to be better in 10 years than they are now. That's according to an online survey of 2,000 U.S. executives and managers done in late June and early July. And in the same poll, 82% of respondents said that self-fulfillment will be a more powerful motivator than fear if we look 10 years out.

Then again, there are persistent signs that the gloomier outlook is gaining traction as well. Job satisfaction in the U.S. plummeted in 2006 to a record low. That's according to a survey of 5,000 households done for the Conference Board. Only 47% of workers were satisfied with their jobs in 2006, down from 59% in 1995. "The demands in the workplace have increased tremendously," says Lynn Franco, director of consumer research for the Conference Board, especially as technology has made it ever harder to get away from the job.

Even more disturbing, two decades of rising incomes for educated workers seem to have come to a halt, at least temporarily. When adjusted for inflation, the real wages and salaries of U.S. workers with at least a bachelor's degree are barely higher than they were in 2000, an unpleasant surprise in a world in which education is seen as the route to success.

Which Way To The Future?.

This is a tough one. Is this good or bad?

In an email with Tyler Cowen, the Economist, blogger, and author, he gave me his perspective:

“I don't think the US will suffer much from outsourcing.  The losers are more likely the countries in the middle, such as Latin America, that have higher wages than China and India but not always higher productivity.  The US is well situated to benefit from outsourcing.”

On a personal level I see 2 traits that are the best business people have that I think will continue to indicate future success (and not be outsourced): Innovation/ creativity and coordination skills.

Outsourcing will continue and grow, but we will always need new ideas and innovations. The best minds in these areas will thrive. Then, the ability to coordinate others across multiple skill sets is the second key. This is because no matter where the execution happens (more and more execution is a complex coordinated effort of people in different localities across the world), so the core competency of “pulling it all together” becomes very important. I just don’t see creative people who can coordinate and work well with others having a problem earning money in the coming decades.

I DO think that some will have more outsourced jobs and lower wages. These are the bureaucrats, non-creative, and people who have well defined jobs that they don’t stretch themselves out of. 

Ultimately it comes down to a level playing field. And, when it is a global level playing field, what you can personally offer versus the rest of the world is starting to matter more and more. This goes for both individuals and countries.